Kova Commerce  //  Q4 Planning

Pott Candles: Q4 2026 Planning Board

One visual surface for the whole quarter: the master timeline, the Meta campaign list, the offers board, the content production plan and the email/SMS plan. Numbers come from the full Q4 game-plan analysis; this board is where the decisions get made. Anything in a dashed amber slot is a decision still open.
Prepared 1 Jul 2026  |  Currency GBP  |  2026 anchors: Black Friday 27 Nov, Cyber Monday 30 Nov, Boxing Day 26 Dec  |  Evidence: full game-plan report
Why September Master timeline Meta campaign list Offers board Content plan Email & SMS plan Decisions needed

The thesis, in one strip

Invest hardest in September and October
Customers acquired in Sep-Oct are the ones who come back and buy at BFCM and beyond. The BFCM cohort itself is the least valuable of the year. So the quarter splits in two: Sep-Oct builds the cohort, Nov-Dec harvests it and sells gifts.
1.53x
Sep/Oct customer LTV vs BFCM cohort
GBP 173 vs GBP 113, holds at equal cohort age
1.62x
Repeat rate: 53% vs 33%
sub attach 28% vs 17%
1.89x → 1.04x
Meta true ROAS, Aug vs Nov 2025
peak spend bought the worst efficiency
GBP 52.8k
#2 revenue day of 2025
one Early-Access email to 2,114 signups
Q4 forecast (KC Financial Dashboard) vs recommended spend
Dashboard plan spend (assumes 6.84x MER) Recommended: GBP 474k envelope at 2025's proven 4.10x, thesis-weighted 2025 actual paid
September COMMITrevenue target GBP 194k · in-month MER 2.4x (buying Nov/Dec revenue)
plan spend
GBP 28k
recommended
GBP 80k
October COMMITrevenue target GBP 430k · in-month MER 3.3x
plan spend
GBP 63k
recommended
GBP 132k
November FLEXrevenue target GBP 741k · in-month MER 4.9x (cohort + list deliver the rest)
plan spend
GBP 108k
recommended
GBP 150k
December FLEXrevenue target GBP 580k · in-month MER 5.2x
plan spend
GBP 85k
recommended
GBP 112k
Q4 totalrevenue target GBP 1.95M · Sep+Oct now 45% of spend (2025: 34%; plan: 32%)
plan spend
GBP 284k
recommended
GBP 474k
Forecast: KC Financial Dashboard active plan (v4, ai-forecast, 7 Jun 2026; GBP 3.0M annual target, profit-day-one appetite). Plan spend = new-customer target x the plan's GBP 23.42 CAC assumption. Recommended envelope = the revenue targets at last year's actual 4.10x blended MER; the monthly shape is thesis-weighted, NOT target-proportional: rising in-month MER through the quarter is the point, because Sep-Oct spend buys the cohort that Nov-Dec then monetises through email and returning purchases. 2025 actual paid (ticks): Sep 31k / Oct 57k / Nov 102k / Dec 71k, GBP 260k total. Refine with a bottom-up November model (cohort repeat + list revenue vs paid gap) before locking.
Two gaps, one rule, one asymmetry.
  • The GBP 190k envelope gap. The active plan funds the targets with GBP 284k, which only works at a 6.84x blended MER built on CAC falling from GBP 35.14 to GBP 23.42, a move the plan engine itself carries at low confidence with no stated plan behind it. At 2025's actual 4.10x the same targets cost ~GBP 474k. Fund the gap or re-cut the Nov/Dec targets; there is no third option that is honest.
  • November is capped, not maxed. November revenue is mostly harvested, not bought: the Sep-Oct cohort and the list deliver it through email and returning purchases. Last year's mistake was scaling cold prospecting into the year's most expensive auction (Meta linearAll fell to 1.04x at peak spend). So November's GBP 150k carries a composition rule: cold prospecting capped at ~GBP 45k (30%), the rest in the buckets that earned it in 2025: BFCM event ~45k, gifting ~35k, warm/EA/retention ~25k.
  • Commit early, flex late. September-October spend cannot be back-filled (the cohort either gets built or it does not), so it is committed. November-December spend is reactive within days (scale BFCM week up or down on early-Nov tracking), so it stays flexible. The committed money sits where the irreversible bet is.

Aug 2026 - Dec 2026

Master timeline
Every lane on one grid: launches, Meta campaigns, offers, email moments and content shoots. The cyan line is Black Friday (27 Nov). This timeline is editable: hit "Edit timeline", then drag bars to move them, drag their edges to stretch or shrink, click a bar to rename or delete it, and use "+ add" to add a drop. Edits save automatically and everyone viewing this page sees them.
live to build new 2026 placeholder, decision open
Drop bars are placeholders mirroring the 2025 cadence (Rhubarb 4 Oct, Christmas Line 16 Oct, Pudding 22 Nov) until the scent calendar is confirmed: rename and drag them as it firms up. Shoot bars are booked-by windows: each shoot must deliver before the campaign it feeds turns on.

Account structure

The Meta campaign list
Ten campaigns for the quarter: four already live, five to build, one new concept (Gifting). Last year 79% of spend sat in evergreen prospecting with no dedicated gifting line; this list fixes that and gives every proven 2025 play its own slot.
CampaignStatusFlightJobOfferCreative source
Evergreen prospecting LIVE Always-on; ramp hard 1 Sep Volume engine. Starter Pack + refill ritual, total candle clarity. Largest budget line all quarter. None (value ladder) Shoot A refresh, ~15-20 assets
Cook Candles LIVE Year-round Proven standalone angle; runs through Q4 untouched, top up creative if fatigue shows. None Existing library
IOW Tomato Vine LIVE To end of season; end date TBD Collab campaign (the template for future collab drops: own campaign, own flight, own creative). None Existing library
Subscription / retention LIVE Always-on; weight up mid-Nov Sub opt-in + returning-customer offers. Ran 3.0-3.1x in 2025; the harvest-phase workhorse. Sub value ladder UGC round in flight (Ads 572-588)
Seasonal drop campaigns (one per drop) BUILD ~2-3 wk flights at each drop Waitlist-launched scent drops. Over-indexed in 2025 (2.7x on tiny spend); increase the budget line. Waitlist early access Product shots per drop, ~8-12 assets each
Gifting NEW 2026 1 Nov - 20 Dec The fix for last year's gap: dedicated gift-occasion messaging for the one-off Nov/Dec buyers. Ready-to-give framing, unmistakably a candle. Gifting offer TBD Shoot B, ~20-25 assets
BF Early-Access signups BUILD ~20 Oct - 26 Nov Leads campaign excluding customers, feeding a Klaviyo segment. GBP 261 seeded the #2 revenue day of 2025; fund it properly and start it 5 weeks earlier. First access to BF Scarcity statics + short video, ~5-8 assets
BFCM sale BUILD 27 - 30 Nov Rebuild the proven dual structure: manual-bid primary + highest-volume backup, each with prospecting + returning ad sets. 3.8x in 2025. BF offer TBD Offer-forward statics + cutdowns, ~8-10 assets
Dec GWP Free Refill BUILD ~1 - 15 Dec Gift-with-purchase bridge between CM and shipping cutoff. 2.42x in 2025. Free Xmas refill threshold TBD Reuse gifting library + offer overlays
Boxing Day clearance BUILD 26 - 31 Dec Short burst. Best Meta ROAS of 2025 (4.58x). Returning-lean. Up to 30% off Statics, ~4-6 assets
2025 baselines: evergreen GBP 188k at 2.0x, event/offer campaigns GBP 24k at 3.6x, drops GBP 8k at 2.7x, retention GBP 6k at 3.0x, early-access GBP 0.3k. Full campaign-level detail in the evidence report, Part 2. Google runs alongside: non-brand Shopping + PMax scale with the same curve, brand Search stays capped, pull back as conversion rate falls mid-Dec.

What we sell, when

Offers board
The quarter runs full-price on the value ladder until late November, then four offer moments carry the peak. Three offers are proven re-runs from 2025; the open decisions are the BF discount itself and whether gifting carries any offer at all.
WindowOfferStatus2025 evidence
Sep - 26 Nov No discount. Starter Pack value ladder (buy the Pott once, refill forever). Waitlist early access is the only "offer" at drops. LOCKED PRINCIPLE Value-before-price is the standing Pott rule; Sep-Oct built the best cohort of the year at full price.
26 Nov (BF minus 1) Early Access: waitlist shops the BF offer 24h early. RE-RUN GBP 52.8k day off one send to 2,114 people (77% open, 50% click).
27 - 30 Nov (BFCM) BF offer TBD: flat % vs tiered vs bundle pricing DECIDE BY 1 OCT 2025 BFCM ran 3.8x. Offer needs locking before Shoot B so creative can carry it.
Nov - Dec (gifting) Gifting offer TBD: likely none; gift framing, bundles, gift wrap instead of discount DECIDE BY 1 OCT New line. 2025 had no gifting messaging at all for the Nov/Dec one-off buyers.
~1 - 15 Dec GWP: free Christmas refill over threshold TBD RE-RUN 2.42x on Meta; 1,078 free refills moved GBP 30k of attached revenue.
26 - 31 Dec Boxing Day: up to 30% off clearance RE-RUN Best Meta ROAS of the year, 4.58x.

Shoot it before you need it

Content production plan
Two shoots plus per-drop product shots cover the whole quarter, roughly 60-80 new assets. The rule from last year's gap: every asset must read as a candle instantly, and the gifting library has to exist before November, which means it is shot in September.

Shoot A: Starter Pack + refill ritual AUG

  • Delivers by: 1 Sep (evergreen ramp day)
  • Feeds: Evergreen prospecting, Early-Access, email
  • Volume: ~15-20 assets, motion-led (demo the refill, show the flame, the pour, the scent story)
  • Must-haves: product-forward, use-occasion, zero ambiguity that this is a candle

Shoot B: Gifting library SEP

  • Delivers by: mid Oct (gifting campaign + BFCM + Dec email all draw on it)
  • Feeds: Gifting, BFCM, GWP, gift-guide emails
  • Volume: ~20-25 assets: giftable bundles, ready-to-give, unwrapping, "the gift that refills"
  • Blocker: BF + gifting offers must be locked first so offer-forward cuts can be shot in the same session
Content blockAssetsShot whenIn-market
Evergreen refresh (Starter Pack, refill ritual)15-20Aug (Shoot A)1 Sep onward
Gifting library20-25Sep (Shoot B)1 Nov - 20 Dec
Drop creative, 3 drops24-36~3 wks pre-drop eachAt each drop
Offer overlays (EA, BF, GWP, Boxing Day)~20Design work on shoot assetsLate Oct - Dec
Total new content~80-100
Volume benchmark: 2026 launch rounds have run 14-53 ads per round, one ad per asset with a shared 5-primary + 5-headline copy set. Asset counts above assume the same build pattern.

The channel that carried 24% of revenue

Email & SMS plan
Everything anchors to a launch, an offer, or the early-access list. Two send archetypes from 2025: small segmented high-intent sends (waitlists, launches) and full-list calendar moments. Rule at the peak: segment harder instead of blasting 12x/week, and use SMS for the four moments that matter (it clicked at 14.3% on only 7 sends last year).

September

Full listNew Season / autumn edit
SegmentedAutumn drop waitlist tease + launch
Always-onPop-up + welcome flow feeding list growth
FlowsStarter Pack value-ladder nurture

October

Full listChristmas line launch
SegmentedDrop 2 waitlist + launch sends
SegmentedBF Early-Access waitlist opens (~20 Oct)
ContentFirst gifting content (guides, bundles)

November

Full list6th Birthday (mid Nov)
SegmentedDrop 3 launch + EA waitlist nurture
Segmented26 Nov: Early Access send (the GBP 52.8k play)
Full list27 Nov BF launch · 30 Nov CM
SMSEA open + BF live

December

Full listGift guide + GWP Free Refill
SegmentedLast-chance by shipping cutoff (~20 Dec)
Full list26 Dec Boxing Day
SMSCutoff warning + Boxing Day
2025 baselines: Klaviyo campaigns GBP 452k + flows GBP 253k; nine of the top ten revenue days carried a matching send. Fatigue showed only when cadence hit 12 sends/week at BF; opens recovered once cadence eased. Detail in the evidence report, Part 4.

What this board is waiting on

Decisions needed