Kova Commerce  //  Q4 Planning

Pott Candles: Q4 2026 Planning Board

One visual surface for the whole quarter: the master timeline, the Meta campaign list, the offers board, the content production plan and the email/SMS plan. Numbers come from the full Q4 game-plan analysis; this board is where the decisions get made. Anything in a dashed amber slot is a decision still open.
Prepared 1 Jul, refreshed 15 Jul 2026 (spend backwards-math, LY offers, content sizing)  |  Currency GBP  |  2026 anchors: Black Friday 27 Nov, Cyber Monday 30 Nov, Boxing Day 26 Dec  |  Evidence: full game-plan report
Why September Master timeline Meta campaign list Offers board Content plan Email & SMS plan Decisions needed

The thesis, in one strip

Invest hardest in September and October
Customers acquired in Sep-Oct are the ones who come back and buy at BFCM and beyond. The BFCM cohort itself is the least valuable of the year. So the quarter splits in two: Sep-Oct builds the cohort, Nov-Dec harvests it and sells gifts.
1.53x
Sep/Oct customer LTV vs BFCM cohort
GBP 173 vs GBP 113, holds at equal cohort age
1.62x
Repeat rate: 53% vs 33%
sub attach 28% vs 17%
1.89x → 1.04x
Meta true ROAS, Aug vs Nov 2025
peak spend bought the worst efficiency
GBP 52.8k
#2 revenue day of 2025
one Early-Access email to 2,114 signups
How the spend is built: work backwards from the revenue forecast

Every month starts from the revenue target. Subtract the revenue that arrives without spending on new customers — returning purchases + subscription rebills — and the remainder is what paid acquisition has to generate. Divide by new-customer AOV (GBP 59) for the customers to buy, multiply by CAC (~GBP 41-49, seasonal) for the money.

MonthRevenue targetReturning + subsNew rev neededNew custsPaid spendIn-month MER
September COMMIT194k75k115k1,56080k2.4x
October COMMIT430k193k200k2,360132k3.0x
November FLEX741k302k263k3,216150k3.8x
December FLEX580k255k177k2,413112k3.9x
Q4 total~1.9M825k755k9,549474k3.3x
Returning+subs is a floor: revenue you get even at zero acquisition. MER climbs Sep→Dec by design — early spend buys the cohort the later months harvest.

Mind the gap: returning + new-from-spend delivers ~GBP 1.58M at GBP 474k. The remaining ~GBP 320k to a GBP 1.9M target is not buyable with ads — it's the yield-growth line (email program, subscription push, product/AOV) that closed the same gap in 2025 with +24-39% per-customer yield. Fund that separately; don't try to buy it with cold spend at BFCM.

Revenue anchor is a placeholder (bottom-up model's honest revised case, 8 Jul: GBP 1.6M commit / GBP 1.85M stretch, delivered at GBP 474k / 3.3x blended). Swap in the live KC-dashboard active-plan targets when confirmed and the whole table re-solves. Returning+subs baseline and seasonal CAC come from the bottom-up model (calibrated on 2025 actuals, cross-checked on 2024); returning includes subscription rebills. New-customer AOV GBP 59, blended per model.
Push the front of the quarter harder than last year.

The customer you buy in September and October is worth 1.53x the one you buy at BFCM, repeats at 53% vs 33%, and attaches a subscription at 28% vs 17%. So the money moves to the front, where the LTV is — and comes off cold acquisition in the low-LTV gifting weeks.

  • Front growth vs LY is deliberate. Sep spend 2.7x last year (GBP 80k vs 30k), Oct 2.3x (132k vs 57k) — but Dec only 1.5x (112k vs 76k). We scale where the customer pays back, not where the auction is hottest.
  • November is capped, not maxed. November revenue is mostly harvested from the Sep-Oct cohort + the list, not bought. Last year's mistake was scaling cold prospecting into the year's most expensive auction (Meta linearAll fell to 1.04x at peak). So November's GBP 150k splits: 1-26 Nov pre-BF push (warm, EA, retention) full appetite; cold prospecting inside BFCM capped ~GBP 45k (30%) — the rest is BFCM event ~45k, gifting ~35k.
  • December cold is pulled back. Gift/impulse one-timers are the least valuable cohort of the year; Dec paid leans capture-gated retargeting of warm gifting traffic, not fresh cold. Boxing Day is the exception (best ROAS of 2025, returning-lean).
  • Commit early, flex late. Sep-Oct spend can't be back-filled (the cohort gets built or it doesn't) — committed. Nov-Dec is reactive within days on early-Nov tracking — flexible. The committed money sits on the irreversible bet.

Aug 2026 - Dec 2026

Master timeline
Every lane on one grid: launches, Meta campaigns, offers, email moments and content shoots. The cyan line is Black Friday (27 Nov). This timeline is editable: hit "Edit timeline", then drag bars to move them, drag their edges to stretch or shrink, click a bar to rename or delete it, and use "+ add" to add a drop. Edits save automatically and everyone viewing this page sees them.
live to build new 2026 placeholder, decision open
Drop bars are placeholders mirroring the 2025 cadence (Rhubarb 4 Oct, Christmas Line 16 Oct, Pudding 22 Nov) until the scent calendar is confirmed: rename and drag them as it firms up. Shoot bars are booked-by windows: each shoot must deliver before the campaign it feeds turns on.

Account structure

The Meta campaign list
Ten campaigns for the quarter: four already live, five to build, one new concept (Gifting). Last year 79% of spend sat in evergreen prospecting with no dedicated gifting line; this list fixes that and gives every proven 2025 play its own slot.
CampaignStatusFlightJobOfferCreative source
Evergreen prospecting LIVE Always-on; ramp hard 1 Sep Volume engine. Starter Pack + refill ritual, total candle clarity. Largest budget line all quarter. None (value ladder) Shoot A refresh, ~15-20 assets
Cook Candles LIVE Year-round Proven standalone angle; runs through Q4 untouched, top up creative if fatigue shows. None Existing library
IOW Tomato Vine LIVE To end of season; end date TBD Collab campaign (the template for future collab drops: own campaign, own flight, own creative). None Existing library
Subscription / retention LIVE Always-on; weight up mid-Nov Sub opt-in + returning-customer offers. Ran 3.0-3.1x in 2025; the harvest-phase workhorse. Sub value ladder UGC round in flight (Ads 572-588)
Seasonal drop campaigns (one per drop) BUILD ~2-3 wk flights at each drop Waitlist-launched scent drops. Over-indexed in 2025 (2.7x on tiny spend); increase the budget line. Waitlist early access Product shots per drop, ~8-12 assets each
Gifting NEW 2026 1 Nov - 20 Dec The fix for last year's gap: dedicated gift-occasion messaging for the one-off Nov/Dec buyers. Ready-to-give framing, unmistakably a candle. Gifting offer TBD Shoot B, ~20-25 assets
BF Early-Access signups BUILD ~20 Oct - 26 Nov Leads campaign excluding customers, feeding a Klaviyo segment. GBP 261 seeded the #2 revenue day of 2025; fund it properly and start it 5 weeks earlier. First access to BF Scarcity statics + short video, ~5-8 assets
BFCM sale BUILD 27 - 30 Nov Rebuild the proven dual structure: manual-bid primary + highest-volume backup, each with prospecting + returning ad sets. 3.8x in 2025. BF offer TBD Offer-forward statics + cutdowns, ~8-10 assets
Dec GWP Free Refill BUILD ~1 - 15 Dec Gift-with-purchase bridge between CM and shipping cutoff. 2.42x in 2025. Free Xmas refill threshold TBD Reuse gifting library + offer overlays
Boxing Day clearance BUILD 26 - 31 Dec Short burst. Best Meta ROAS of 2025 (4.58x). Returning-lean. 10% off (LY); depth TBD Statics, ~15-20 assets
2025 baselines: evergreen GBP 188k at 2.0x, event/offer campaigns GBP 24k at 3.6x, drops GBP 8k at 2.7x, retention GBP 6k at 3.0x, early-access GBP 0.3k. Full campaign-level detail in the evidence report, Part 2. Google runs alongside: non-brand Shopping + PMax scale with the same curve, brand Search stays capped, pull back as conversion rate falls mid-Dec.

What we sell, when

Offers board
The quarter runs full-price on the value ladder until late November, then a laddered set of offer moments carries the peak. The 2025 actual column is reconstructed from Klaviyo campaign sends + Shopify price rules (two agreeing sources) — note the discount got shallower as the quarter went on, and New Year was a product drop, not a markdown.
Window2026 plan2025 actual (evidenced)Status
Sep - late Nov
value window		 No sitewide discount. Starter Pack value ladder. Evergreen GBP 5 off Starter Pack keeps running (it is live now). Waitlist early access is the only "offer" at drops. Full price; standing evergreen GBP 5-off Starter Pack. Sep-Oct built the best cohort of the year at full price. LOCKED PRINCIPLE
~24-25 Nov
VIP, before everyone		 VIP exclusive early access. Hand-built high-LTV cohort shops 48h before anyone + an exclusive perk no one else gets (free Christmas refill / VIP-only bundle / free shipping). Same 20% headline — not deeper, to protect margin on customers who'd buy anyway. New play. Closest 2025 analogs both worked: the targeted GBP 10 gift to high-spenders, and the EA send that drove the #2 revenue day. PROPOSED
26 Nov
BF minus 1		 Early Access: waitlist shops the BF offer 24h early (same 20%, no exclusive perk). GBP 52.8k day off one send to 2,114 people (77% open, 50% click) — #2 revenue day of the year. RE-RUN
27 - 30 Nov
BFCM		 BF offer TBD — recommend matching or beating LY: 20% off sitewide, with the +5% "shop again" kicker to lift repeat purchase. 20% off sitewide (live 28 Nov, final call 1 Dec) + extra 5% off to shop-again repeat buyers. BFCM campaigns ran 3.8x. DECIDE BY 1 OCT
~11 - 17 Dec
Christmas		 Christmas offer + repeat the targeted GBP 10 gift to high-LTV segments (loyalty, not broad acquisition). 20-25% off sitewide (Christmas Offer Campaign) + GBP 10 gift to high-spenders & crowdfunders only. RE-RUN
~1 - 15 Dec
gifting bridge		 GWP: free Christmas refill over threshold TBD. Gift framing/bundles over discount for the Nov/Dec one-off buyers. Free-refill GWP ran 2.42x on Meta (1,078 refills, ~GBP 30k attached). No dedicated gifting messaging line existed — the 2026 gap to fix. RE-RUN + NEW
26 - 31 Dec
Boxing Day		 Boxing Day clearance. Depth TBD — LY was light (10%); room to go deeper on clearance stock. 10% off sitewide (26 Dec launch, ran to 31 Dec). Best Meta ROAS of the year, 4.58x — returning-lean. RE-RUN
31 Dec - 1 Jan
New Year		 New-scent drop, not a discount. Turn the calendar moment into a launch (waitlist + full-price) as the Boxing Day sale ends. No New Year offer — Boxing Day 10% sale ended 31 Dec and new scents launched 1 Jan ("Sale ends, New Scents tomorrow"). NEW 2026
2025 offers reconstructed 14 Jul 2026 from Klaviyo Q4 campaign names + Shopify price-rule sitewide-% aggregation (both agree). Full table: clients/pott-candles/q4-plan/ly-q4-2025-offers.md. Note the ladder: BF 20%(+5%) → Christmas 20-25% → Boxing Day 10%. Correction vs earlier board draft: Boxing Day was 10%, not 30%.
VIP cohort — the top rung of the access ladder PROPOSED

Three tiers of access, one headline price: VIP (48h early + exclusive perk) → Early Access (24h early, same offer) → public BF (20%). The VIP tier activates the highest-LTV customers — the exact cohort the Sep-Oct spend built — through email before the paid auction peaks. Value is in exclusivity + a non-price perk, not a deeper discount.

Who qualifies (Klaviyo segment)

  • Active subscribers
  • Repeat buyers (2+ orders)
  • Top ~10-15% by lifetime spend
  • Prior BFCM early-access openers/clickers
  • Crowdfunders (the 2025 GBP 10-gift segment)

Perk options (pick one, non-price)

  • Free Christmas refill, no minimum (threshold GWP)
  • VIP-only bundle or limited scent
  • Free shipping for the VIP window
  • First crack at the 1 Jan new-scent drop
Built from Shopify + engagement data you already hold. Keep the segment genuinely narrow (single-digit % of the list) so exclusivity — and the margin logic — holds. Deliberately not a deeper % : rewarding spend/loyalty beats discounting buyers who'd convert anyway.

Shoot it before you need it

Content production plan
Content is sized from spend. Summer 2026's scaled winners tell us the rate: a strong product campaign spends ~GBP 100 per delivered ad (Tomato Vine GBP 98/ad at 82 ads & 3.28x; Roses GBP 79 at ~50; Citronella GBP 139 at 63) — and the best-ROAS campaigns ran the most creatives, so scale needs breadth, not just budget. Applying that rate to the Q4 spend plan, the quarter needs ~300 delivered ads — roughly 3x the old 80-100 estimate, because spend is 2-3x summer.
Ads needed per campaign (sized from the Q4 spend plan)
CampaignMeta spendFlightAds neededBasis
Evergreen prospecting~120kalways-on, 4 mo70-80Refresh ~20/mo to beat fatigue; budget concentrates on winners (not linear to spend)
BFCM sale~45k4-day burst40-50Deep pool for a hot short auction; offer-forward statics + cutdowns
Gifting NEW~40k1 Nov-20 Dec50-60Full new library at Tomato-scale (£8k→82 ads); ready-to-give angles
Seasonal drops (3)~25k3x 2-3 wk55-70~20-25 each, Tomato/Roses pattern (waitlist launch)
Dec GWP free refill~20k~1-15 Dec20-25Offer overlays on the gifting library
Subscription / retention~18kalways-on15-20UGC-led, weight up mid-Nov
Boxing Day~12k6-day burst15-20Short burst, returning-lean statics
BF Early-Access~10k~20 Oct-26 Nov15-20Scarcity statics + short video (leads campaign)
Cook Candlesexistingyear-round~10 top-upLibrary exists; refresh only if fatigue shows
Total delivered~290k~300Produce ~350-400 pieces — budget 15-25% that never meaningfully deliver
Rate from the summer-2026 Meta pull (`clients/pott-candles/q4-plan/data/meta-summer-2026-benchmark.json`): winning campaigns spent GBP 79-139 per delivered ad. Applied to burst campaigns directly; always-on lines (evergreen, sub) sized on a fatigue-refresh cadence, not linear spend/£100, since budget concentrates on proven winners. One Pott ad = one creative carrying all 5 primaries + 5 headlines, so "ads" ≈ finished creative pieces, ~half video / half image. Google spend (~GBP 144k of the GBP 474k) is Shopping/PMax feed-driven, not creative-sized here.
How ~300 ads is achievable: the 27-tile angle × format matrix

The Canva template is a standardised system — ~11 angles × 3 formats = 27 ad concepts: Founder · Refill-into-Pott · BTS · Reviews · Product/Collection · Scent · Lifestyle · Unboxing · Insta Story · Seasonal, each as Image / Video / UGC-Video. It doesn't change how many ads the spend needs — the ~300 figure is set by budget and fatigue in the auction, not by the tool. What it changes is the production math:

  • Supply multiplier. A handful of raw inputs (product + scent shots, one founder clip, UGC, review screenshots) fills all 27 tiles by recombination — so ~80-100 shot assets genuinely stretch to ~300 finished ads. The matrix is why the higher ad count is realistic, not a shooting burden.
  • A per-campaign recipe. Ad count becomes bottom-up: each product/theme × the relevant matrix tiles. Evergreen runs close to the full 27; a scent drop = the Scent + Lifestyle + UGC subset (~10-14); BFCM = Seasonal + Product + Reviews tiles with offer overlays (~12-16 × a couple of themes); gifting = its own pass of the 27. It also locks in the ~half-video/half-image split the winners had.
  • The one caveat. Meta rewards real angle/format diversity — which is exactly what 27 distinct concepts give. Don't inflate the count with near-duplicate colour-swaps of one tile; those read as the same ad and won't earn incremental efficiency.
Net: the template supports the ~300 target (and makes the high end cheaper to reach), it doesn't lower it. Plan ad counts as matrix-tiles × themes; keep each tile a genuinely distinct concept.

Producing it: two shoots + per-drop shots

Shoot A: Starter Pack + refill ritual AUG

  • Delivers by: 1 Sep (evergreen ramp day)
  • Feeds: Evergreen prospecting, Early-Access, email
  • Volume: ~15-20 assets, motion-led (demo the refill, show the flame, the pour, the scent story)
  • Must-haves: product-forward, use-occasion, zero ambiguity that this is a candle

Shoot B: Gifting library SEP

  • Delivers by: mid Oct (gifting campaign + BFCM + Dec email all draw on it)
  • Feeds: Gifting, BFCM, GWP, gift-guide emails
  • Volume: ~20-25 assets: giftable bundles, ready-to-give, unwrapping, "the gift that refills"
  • Blocker: BF + gifting offers must be locked first so offer-forward cuts can be shot in the same session
Content blockAssetsShot whenIn-market
Evergreen refresh (Starter Pack, refill ritual)15-20Aug (Shoot A)1 Sep onward
Gifting library20-25Sep (Shoot B)1 Nov - 20 Dec
Drop creative, 3 drops24-36~3 wks pre-drop eachAt each drop
Offer overlays (EA, BF, GWP, Boxing Day)~20Design work on shoot assetsLate Oct - Dec
Total net-new shot assets~80-100
Two counts, don't confuse them: ~80-100 net-new shot assets (this table, production/shoot view) get cut into format + hook variants and combined with library reuse to make the ~300 delivered ads the spend needs (table above, delivery view). Roughly 3-4 ad variants per hero asset, less for offer overlays. Both are the same creative program seen from the studio vs from Ads Manager.

The channel that carried 24% of revenue

Email & SMS plan
Everything anchors to a launch, an offer, or the early-access list. Two send archetypes from 2025: small segmented high-intent sends (waitlists, launches) and full-list calendar moments. Rule at the peak: segment harder instead of blasting 12x/week, and use SMS for the four moments that matter (it clicked at 14.3% on only 7 sends last year).

September

Full listNew Season / autumn edit
SegmentedAutumn drop waitlist tease + launch
Always-onPop-up + welcome flow feeding list growth
FlowsStarter Pack value-ladder nurture

October

Full listChristmas line launch
SegmentedDrop 2 waitlist + launch sends
SegmentedBF Early-Access waitlist opens (~20 Oct)
ContentFirst gifting content (guides, bundles)

November

Full list6th Birthday (mid Nov)
SegmentedDrop 3 launch + EA waitlist nurture
VIP~24 Nov: VIP exclusive early access + perk
Segmented26 Nov: Early Access send (the GBP 52.8k play)
Full list27 Nov BF launch · 30 Nov CM
SMSEA open + BF live

December

Full listGift guide + GWP Free Refill
SegmentedLast-chance by shipping cutoff (~20 Dec)
Full list26 Dec Boxing Day
SMSCutoff warning + Boxing Day
2025 baselines: Klaviyo campaigns GBP 452k + flows GBP 253k; nine of the top ten revenue days carried a matching send. Fatigue showed only when cadence hit 12 sends/week at BF; opens recovered once cadence eased. Detail in the evidence report, Part 4.

What this board is waiting on

Decisions needed